Here's the way I'd order the batters if the season started today:
1. Ryan Theriot
2. Mike Fontenot/Aaron Miles
3. Alfonso Soriano
4. Aramis Ramirez
5. Derek Lee
6. Milton Bradley
7. Geovani Soto
8. Reed Johnson/Kosuke Fukudome
9. Carlos Zambrano
I'd love to see what other people would do.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
What I think of the 09 team (before Spring Training) Position Players
Starters
Soto (Catcher:2): I've never felt better about a Cubs starting catching going into a season. I think Geo could be an all time great. What a great season. He better be a Cub for many many years to come. Great offense. He handles the pitchers well. The defense is good enough. We are set for a long time with him behind the plate, barring injuries or General Management stupidity.
D-Lee (1B:3): I think Derek Lee's production this season is the key to being a good team or a great team. He hasn't been as great offensively since the wrist injury. If he has a monster season like he did in 2005, I don't think we'll have much trouble. Our whole line-up is solid. If he is 2005 Derek Lee, it's scary. Regardless of offense, he saves so many runs at first. Defensively, I think he's tops at first.
FonteMiles (2B:4): I guess second base is the position most up in the air going into spring training. Fontenot has a lot of promise, but we're paying Miles more. To me, the most telling stat for these two is that Fontenot has ten more RBI in over 100 less at bats than Miles. Miles may have a slight edge on speed, but Fontenot has the edge on power. Knowing Lou, it will mostly depend on the lefty rightie matchups (Fontenot's a rightie, Miles a switch). The biggest disappointment of the offseason to me was getting rid of DeRosa. I think we fall off, offensively, no matter who ends up at second now. Plus, defensively, we're rotating new people through the middle constantly. I think our double play ability gets weakend by not giving two regulars a chance to get used to each other.
Ramirez (3B:5): Aramis is currently my favorite Cub. Last season, he led the team in RBI, and showed far more patience at the plate than I've seen out of him. He walked 30 more times in 08 than in 07. His power numbers were down this year, as were most of our big boys. He is also getting better defensively each year. I think Aramis could win a gold glove.
Theriot (SS:6): Last year was Theriot's breakout year. He was great for average, and I feel like he brings some fire to the clubhouse without being loud and flashy. He solidified his place as a Cubs starter, and started to get nods from the national media as well. He doesn't have the explosive speed to be a prototypical lead-off hitter, but he's ideal to me to be number 2.
Soriano (LF:7): Plain and simple, Soriano needs to stay healthy. I think his 40/40 seasons may be behind him, but 30 homeruns and 30 sb would be just fine for this team. Soriano is, by far, the most impatient of our high profile players, so it is painful sometimes to see him leading off. It's great when he's in one of those zones where he hits everything to waveland, but the rest of the time it's three swings and sit to start each game. He seems to hit better at lead-off, but I'd love to see him make it work at 2,3 or 5.
FukuJohnson (CF:8): I want both of these guys to succeed. Reed Johnson was a wonderful breath of fresh air last season. He plays hard and gets clutch hits. It still blows my mind that he didn't get any time in the playoffs. And, really, didn't Fukudome seemed like the real deal for the first half? Isn't the optimist in you just praying that it'll happen again? Whoever is out there, the defense will be very good. I think Fukudome has the edge there, but either is real solid, which is good when you look at right and left, defensively. When it comes down to this one, just like second, I think it will mainly depend on what hand the pitcher is throwing with.
Bradley (RF:9): Sigh. I was hoping they wouldn't sign him. Beyond the issues he seems to have in most places he goes, he's very injury prone, and that was in the American league. My guess is that he'll play a little over half the games this season and the offense will be adequate based on what we expect from him. I hope I'm wrong.
Bench
Hoffpauir (1B,LF,RF): We've been trying to get this guy in for several years now. Everyone is singing his praises offensively. Trouble is that his natural position is first base. So, expect to see him as our first pinch hitting option. He mashed in the minors, and everyone seems to think he can do it in the majors. If Lee isn't needing much time off, expect to see him give Milton Bradley a break now and then. It won't be for defense, though. It sounds like he really should be at first.
Gathright (CF): For those of you who are sad about losing Felix Pie, don't worry, Gathright is basically the same person. Lots of speed and athletic ability. Covers plenty of ground in Center. Can steal bases, but has major problems getting on first. Since Pie was out of options, I guess we just replaced him with someone who wouldn't be.
Bako (C): Why on earth would he let Henry Blanco, the dictionary definition of a good back-up catcher, go for Paul Bako, president of the Mendoza line society? This one I just don't understand. Here's an omen for you. Last player to strike out in the 03 collapse to end the Cubs chances for a world series? You guessed it, Paul Bako. But far more forboding is the .217 average that he posted last year with the Reds in the most hitter friendly park this side of coors field. We get it. We want more lefties. But really? Bako?
Hill (C): Hopefully, Koyie Hill comes in and proves he can be a major leaguer (or at least a major league back-up). He is also the left handed bat that we seem to covet so terribly that we don't mind how awful a hitter they are. Koyie (pronounced Coy) hasn't really been up consistently enough to prove much. He came in a lot in the 06 season when Barrett was hurt and we were still figuring out who our other catcher would be. Nothing impressive offensively, but I've read that our pitchers like him. The most important thing with a back-up catcher is calling the game. I wouldn't expect to see Geo out of the line-up very much this year.
Last year, I felt like we had one of the best benches in the majors. Now, I don't really know what to think. It seems like there are much less to choose from than last year. This will work itself out in spring training, but I'm going to feel much less safe for a while whenever a reserve gets called in. I'm crossing my fingers in hopes that we don't have many injuries.
Soto (Catcher:2): I've never felt better about a Cubs starting catching going into a season. I think Geo could be an all time great. What a great season. He better be a Cub for many many years to come. Great offense. He handles the pitchers well. The defense is good enough. We are set for a long time with him behind the plate, barring injuries or General Management stupidity.
D-Lee (1B:3): I think Derek Lee's production this season is the key to being a good team or a great team. He hasn't been as great offensively since the wrist injury. If he has a monster season like he did in 2005, I don't think we'll have much trouble. Our whole line-up is solid. If he is 2005 Derek Lee, it's scary. Regardless of offense, he saves so many runs at first. Defensively, I think he's tops at first.
FonteMiles (2B:4): I guess second base is the position most up in the air going into spring training. Fontenot has a lot of promise, but we're paying Miles more. To me, the most telling stat for these two is that Fontenot has ten more RBI in over 100 less at bats than Miles. Miles may have a slight edge on speed, but Fontenot has the edge on power. Knowing Lou, it will mostly depend on the lefty rightie matchups (Fontenot's a rightie, Miles a switch). The biggest disappointment of the offseason to me was getting rid of DeRosa. I think we fall off, offensively, no matter who ends up at second now. Plus, defensively, we're rotating new people through the middle constantly. I think our double play ability gets weakend by not giving two regulars a chance to get used to each other.
Ramirez (3B:5): Aramis is currently my favorite Cub. Last season, he led the team in RBI, and showed far more patience at the plate than I've seen out of him. He walked 30 more times in 08 than in 07. His power numbers were down this year, as were most of our big boys. He is also getting better defensively each year. I think Aramis could win a gold glove.
Theriot (SS:6): Last year was Theriot's breakout year. He was great for average, and I feel like he brings some fire to the clubhouse without being loud and flashy. He solidified his place as a Cubs starter, and started to get nods from the national media as well. He doesn't have the explosive speed to be a prototypical lead-off hitter, but he's ideal to me to be number 2.
Soriano (LF:7): Plain and simple, Soriano needs to stay healthy. I think his 40/40 seasons may be behind him, but 30 homeruns and 30 sb would be just fine for this team. Soriano is, by far, the most impatient of our high profile players, so it is painful sometimes to see him leading off. It's great when he's in one of those zones where he hits everything to waveland, but the rest of the time it's three swings and sit to start each game. He seems to hit better at lead-off, but I'd love to see him make it work at 2,3 or 5.
FukuJohnson (CF:8): I want both of these guys to succeed. Reed Johnson was a wonderful breath of fresh air last season. He plays hard and gets clutch hits. It still blows my mind that he didn't get any time in the playoffs. And, really, didn't Fukudome seemed like the real deal for the first half? Isn't the optimist in you just praying that it'll happen again? Whoever is out there, the defense will be very good. I think Fukudome has the edge there, but either is real solid, which is good when you look at right and left, defensively. When it comes down to this one, just like second, I think it will mainly depend on what hand the pitcher is throwing with.
Bradley (RF:9): Sigh. I was hoping they wouldn't sign him. Beyond the issues he seems to have in most places he goes, he's very injury prone, and that was in the American league. My guess is that he'll play a little over half the games this season and the offense will be adequate based on what we expect from him. I hope I'm wrong.
Bench
Hoffpauir (1B,LF,RF): We've been trying to get this guy in for several years now. Everyone is singing his praises offensively. Trouble is that his natural position is first base. So, expect to see him as our first pinch hitting option. He mashed in the minors, and everyone seems to think he can do it in the majors. If Lee isn't needing much time off, expect to see him give Milton Bradley a break now and then. It won't be for defense, though. It sounds like he really should be at first.
Gathright (CF): For those of you who are sad about losing Felix Pie, don't worry, Gathright is basically the same person. Lots of speed and athletic ability. Covers plenty of ground in Center. Can steal bases, but has major problems getting on first. Since Pie was out of options, I guess we just replaced him with someone who wouldn't be.
Bako (C): Why on earth would he let Henry Blanco, the dictionary definition of a good back-up catcher, go for Paul Bako, president of the Mendoza line society? This one I just don't understand. Here's an omen for you. Last player to strike out in the 03 collapse to end the Cubs chances for a world series? You guessed it, Paul Bako. But far more forboding is the .217 average that he posted last year with the Reds in the most hitter friendly park this side of coors field. We get it. We want more lefties. But really? Bako?
Hill (C): Hopefully, Koyie Hill comes in and proves he can be a major leaguer (or at least a major league back-up). He is also the left handed bat that we seem to covet so terribly that we don't mind how awful a hitter they are. Koyie (pronounced Coy) hasn't really been up consistently enough to prove much. He came in a lot in the 06 season when Barrett was hurt and we were still figuring out who our other catcher would be. Nothing impressive offensively, but I've read that our pitchers like him. The most important thing with a back-up catcher is calling the game. I wouldn't expect to see Geo out of the line-up very much this year.
Last year, I felt like we had one of the best benches in the majors. Now, I don't really know what to think. It seems like there are much less to choose from than last year. This will work itself out in spring training, but I'm going to feel much less safe for a while whenever a reserve gets called in. I'm crossing my fingers in hopes that we don't have many injuries.
Monday, February 16, 2009
What I think of the 2009 team (before spring training) The Pitching
Starting Pitching
I think we have the best rotation in the National League, quite possibly in baseball. Just from start to finish, 4 out of our 5 could be a 20 game winner next year. If they Cubs end up with Peavy, I don't think anyone can touch our starting rotation. Otherwise, it's probably Marshal, who is fine for a number 5. Last season we had 7 legitimate guys in spring training for the 5 spots. This year we don't. So, if we get some injuries, we could be in trouble.
Zambrano-There's not much to say about Zambrano that hasn't already been said. Great stuff. All the talent in the world. If he'll just keep his emotions in check. Blah, blah, blah. He'll go through a month of barely winning a game and somehow still end up with 18 wins.
Dempster-I'm very glad we resigned Dempster. I don't know that he leads the team in wins again this year (oh yeah, it was Dempster. 17 wins), but I think he's good for this team. He's a great clubhouse guy and he's been willing to do whatever the Cubs ask. And, if you're ever at a Cubs gathering, he's great to listen to. It's just real tough not to like this guy.
Harden-I've got my fingers crossed for health here. So many players say he's got the best stuff in the league if he stays healthy. If he does get hurt, I hope it's early on, so we can have him at the end of the season. Not that that helped in the playoffs last season.
Lilly-He's a tough one to figure out. It seemed to me like he had a bad year, but you look at his stats (especially wins) and it's nothing to complain about. No matter where he's at this year, if he's number 4, that's a real good number 4.
Marshal- It'd be nice to be saying "Peavy," instead of Marshal. Heck, I'd even prefer saying "Marquis." Marshal is solid or weak as a starter. If he's a starter all season, I predict he's going to finish 8-9. He's that kind of a guy. But, that's really fine with me--it's the number 5 starter, come on. What bothers me is that Marshal seems much more suited as a long man in the bullpen. His best work last season, in my opinion was taking over for a poor start and keeping the boys in it. That saved us several times, and I'm not sure where that's going to come from this season.
Relief
We've turned over a lot this season. Outside of Kerry Wood, I'm not super sad about the ones we've lost. Wuertz was only good enough to keep your hopes up, Howry had a terrible season (I felt like the Cardinals must feel when Izzy came in, every time he entered), etc etc. We are very right heavy. Neil Cotts is our only left hander (Marshall is left handed, if he were still there). We were very concerned about making our line-up more left-handed this season. I wonder why we aren't concerned at all about having no left handed relief. Again, though, I'm sorry to see Woody go. He stays healthy for most of a season, and that's the season we decide to let him go. I'm not talking about all the relievers, just so you know.
Vizcaino-This is the guy we got from Colorado for Jason Marquis. I had him on a fantasy team about 3 years back (when he was with the Diamondbacks), and he was a great holds guy. He was traded to the Yankees the next season and then ended up with the Rockies. His ERA skyrocketed last season (5.28 in 43 games), but remember he was pitching in Coors Field. I think he'll be fine for a 6 or 7th inning guy.
Heilman-This is the guy we grom from Seattle for Ronny Cedeno. He gets a lot of Ks and doesn't give up many homeruns. Seattle didn't seem to be a good fit for him. His ERA was going down each year with the Mets, but it went up to 5.21 (from 3.01) last season. He also walked about 25 more in about 10 less appearances. Hopefully last year was a fluke.
Samardzja-Some day I'll be able to spell his last name from memory. I did not expect him to grab a place on the team so quickly with so much success. But, judging from his first season, there's a lot of promise. Most of the scouts are putting this guy in the rotation sometime down the road.
Marmol-They say that the closer job will be decided in spring training, but I don't know how he doesn't get it. I really hope he establishes himself as one of the league's elite closers over the next few years.
Gregg-He came to us from the Marlins, where he racked up 32 saves last season. He's the other guy in the mix for closer, of course. His ERA is about a point higher than Marmol, he struck out about half of what Marmol struck out while walking about the same. He's either closer or set up man in all likelyhood
Cotts-I think the only reason he's here is that we're all righties without him. Looking at his stats, they don't seem too terrible. But, according to my memory, he was underwelming just about everytime he went out there. In my memory, only Howry had a rougher time last summer in relief appearances. He was coming off an injury, so maybe things will look up this season.
Gaudin- This guy came to us midseason with Rich Harden. He should be a real solid reliever. A lot of people say he's as important a part of the deal as Rich Harden. He also started in 2007, so that's a possibility. His ERA is a little higher than I would like, but I guess everyone isn't going to be in the 2s.
That's what I'm doing for now. More after I've seen them playing. Position Players coming soon.
I think we have the best rotation in the National League, quite possibly in baseball. Just from start to finish, 4 out of our 5 could be a 20 game winner next year. If they Cubs end up with Peavy, I don't think anyone can touch our starting rotation. Otherwise, it's probably Marshal, who is fine for a number 5. Last season we had 7 legitimate guys in spring training for the 5 spots. This year we don't. So, if we get some injuries, we could be in trouble.
Zambrano-There's not much to say about Zambrano that hasn't already been said. Great stuff. All the talent in the world. If he'll just keep his emotions in check. Blah, blah, blah. He'll go through a month of barely winning a game and somehow still end up with 18 wins.
Dempster-I'm very glad we resigned Dempster. I don't know that he leads the team in wins again this year (oh yeah, it was Dempster. 17 wins), but I think he's good for this team. He's a great clubhouse guy and he's been willing to do whatever the Cubs ask. And, if you're ever at a Cubs gathering, he's great to listen to. It's just real tough not to like this guy.
Harden-I've got my fingers crossed for health here. So many players say he's got the best stuff in the league if he stays healthy. If he does get hurt, I hope it's early on, so we can have him at the end of the season. Not that that helped in the playoffs last season.
Lilly-He's a tough one to figure out. It seemed to me like he had a bad year, but you look at his stats (especially wins) and it's nothing to complain about. No matter where he's at this year, if he's number 4, that's a real good number 4.
Marshal- It'd be nice to be saying "Peavy," instead of Marshal. Heck, I'd even prefer saying "Marquis." Marshal is solid or weak as a starter. If he's a starter all season, I predict he's going to finish 8-9. He's that kind of a guy. But, that's really fine with me--it's the number 5 starter, come on. What bothers me is that Marshal seems much more suited as a long man in the bullpen. His best work last season, in my opinion was taking over for a poor start and keeping the boys in it. That saved us several times, and I'm not sure where that's going to come from this season.
Relief
We've turned over a lot this season. Outside of Kerry Wood, I'm not super sad about the ones we've lost. Wuertz was only good enough to keep your hopes up, Howry had a terrible season (I felt like the Cardinals must feel when Izzy came in, every time he entered), etc etc. We are very right heavy. Neil Cotts is our only left hander (Marshall is left handed, if he were still there). We were very concerned about making our line-up more left-handed this season. I wonder why we aren't concerned at all about having no left handed relief. Again, though, I'm sorry to see Woody go. He stays healthy for most of a season, and that's the season we decide to let him go. I'm not talking about all the relievers, just so you know.
Vizcaino-This is the guy we got from Colorado for Jason Marquis. I had him on a fantasy team about 3 years back (when he was with the Diamondbacks), and he was a great holds guy. He was traded to the Yankees the next season and then ended up with the Rockies. His ERA skyrocketed last season (5.28 in 43 games), but remember he was pitching in Coors Field. I think he'll be fine for a 6 or 7th inning guy.
Heilman-This is the guy we grom from Seattle for Ronny Cedeno. He gets a lot of Ks and doesn't give up many homeruns. Seattle didn't seem to be a good fit for him. His ERA was going down each year with the Mets, but it went up to 5.21 (from 3.01) last season. He also walked about 25 more in about 10 less appearances. Hopefully last year was a fluke.
Samardzja-Some day I'll be able to spell his last name from memory. I did not expect him to grab a place on the team so quickly with so much success. But, judging from his first season, there's a lot of promise. Most of the scouts are putting this guy in the rotation sometime down the road.
Marmol-They say that the closer job will be decided in spring training, but I don't know how he doesn't get it. I really hope he establishes himself as one of the league's elite closers over the next few years.
Gregg-He came to us from the Marlins, where he racked up 32 saves last season. He's the other guy in the mix for closer, of course. His ERA is about a point higher than Marmol, he struck out about half of what Marmol struck out while walking about the same. He's either closer or set up man in all likelyhood
Cotts-I think the only reason he's here is that we're all righties without him. Looking at his stats, they don't seem too terrible. But, according to my memory, he was underwelming just about everytime he went out there. In my memory, only Howry had a rougher time last summer in relief appearances. He was coming off an injury, so maybe things will look up this season.
Gaudin- This guy came to us midseason with Rich Harden. He should be a real solid reliever. A lot of people say he's as important a part of the deal as Rich Harden. He also started in 2007, so that's a possibility. His ERA is a little higher than I would like, but I guess everyone isn't going to be in the 2s.
That's what I'm doing for now. More after I've seen them playing. Position Players coming soon.
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